![]() ![]() The merger paid off for him as he became a game designer in the process. Like last year, I will use most of the dividends to add 30 shares of BCE (Bell Canada Enterprises) and five shares of DIS (Walt Disney Company) at the December 31 closing price.Unfortunately for him, his first project, Ice Castle, never made it to production. Like my own, it was almost flat on the year with a minor 4.2 per cent loss, still up 46.3 per cent in 4.5 years. My next article will include 2023 prognostications and I will now conclude with the performance of the Titanium-Strength Portfolio. In my newsletter I wrote, “Politicians will hide from economic reality and discourage rate hikes but in the end central banks will be forced by inflation to increase rates.” Can you hit the nail any more squarely? Fourth, I did not foresee a recession and predicted inflation would stay well above central bankers’ target rate exacerbating wealth and income inequality but subdue later in the year.Third, I predicted robust commodity prices, that the hated energy sector would bail out the Canadian economy and our market would outperform the American economy and be up “in the teens.” I was correct on all factors except, once again, I was overly optimistic on final market performance.The prediction was, however, reflective of our portfolio performance. I was correct on two of three factors and was off on the final S&P 500 level. Second, I predicted greater volatility, a move from speculative and high-growth stocks to value stocks and the S&P 500 would end about flat.I could not see any correlation between prediction and outcome. Four years were close, but 12 years had results more than 10 per cent away from the prediction, with the biggest gap being 2008 when an eight per cent projected gain came in with a 37 per cent loss. The folks responsible for the changes were dramatically off the mark.Īs well, I ran into a chart showing the average of Wall Street analysts’ projections for the past 23 years. In fact, seven increases occurred totalling 4.25 percentage points. Feds projected one interest rate increase for 2022, which they revised to three in December. This is always an easy prediction and I have a couple of illustrative examples. My first prediction was most predictions would be wrong.This wasn’t near as much fun as 2021, when we were up 24.3, 28.8 and 53.6 per cent, respectively, but was one of my best years from an across-the-board market outperformance standpoint. My regular account that combines stock and option strategies was down slightly more at 4.6 per cent. Our TFSAs were up (that’s correct … up) marginally at 0.8 per cent, while the model RRSP portfolio was down just 0.8 per cent. My newsletter and personal portfolios performed much better than market averages. While a tough year for many market participants, from a positive standpoint it was a year that separated investors from traders and speculators. markets experienced double digit declines in both stocks and bonds. bonds experienced one of its worst years, declining 12.7 per cent.Ī standard 60/40 portfolio of stocks and bonds had its third worst year on record, trailing just 19. Bonds, normally expected to stabilize portfolios, provided little relief as U.S. Our domestic market experienced a loss of 5.8 per cent. The TSX was more stable and performed better as resource stocks staged a comeback. The S&P 500 concluded its worst year since 2008, with a loss of 18.1 per cent. Eight months with more than a five per cent change. Month-to-month percentage variations were January -5.2, February -3.2, March +3.6, April -8.8, May +0.2, June -8.7, July +9.1, August -4.2, September -9.3, October +8.0, November +5.4 and December -5.9. The S&P 500 had a record number of months with changes of five per cent or greater. Markets last year behaved much like the ball inside the machine, requiring a “supple wrist” to navigate. While my game was pool, I marvelled at how skilled pinball players kept the ball bouncing around the machine endlessly. After completing the last column, I thought perhaps a better definition of growth and value would be in order as…Īt its entrance stood a bank of pinball machines, always busy and always with a ring of fans ready to take over when someone’s quarters ran dry. ![]()
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